Tuesday, November 6, 2012

I’m calling it for Obama!

Now wait…. This conclusion has only been reached in the last hour. Most of the day yesterday I was convinced Romney would squeak out a victory over Obama today.  This was based mostly on my belief that whoever wins Ohio will win the presidential election. I won’t bore you with how I came to believe that Ohio is the key here, but I will explain why I have come to have faith Obama will carry Ohio and thus, the election.

First, I have poured over the polls and they look better to me then they had in the past. Second, the polls always sample likely voters at the exclusion of unlikely voters. What about these unlikely voters?  If you include a larger number of unlikely voters in the poll along with likely voters, Obama wins in a landslide. That is correct. All the political pundits know that the unlikely voters favor Obama by a large margin. Therefore, if a larger number of unlikely voters get out and vote, Obama wins. Look at the following table of recent polls in Ohio:

Simply put, unlikely voters have been under polled.  Why? First the Obama campaign’s goal of turning out unlikely voters in Ohio is bearing fruit. Polling districts across the state with high concentrations of unlikely voters are showing better than expected turnout.

So, I am calling this election for Obama. The key to this prediction is that there will be a higher than predicted turnout of “unlikely voters”. So, if you have not voted please do… Help prove me right!! Thanks for reading my post!

No comments:

Post a Comment